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kztyler

Chaos Machine percentage

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kztyler    0
Posted (edited)

I want to know if the % of success of chaos machine are working correctly, so far me and my friend have burned:

Exe items

85% fail 2x items / 2x succeed

80% fail 3x / 2x suceed

AA weapons

90% 3x fail / 3x succeed

95% 2x fail / 3x succeed

85% 1x fail / 0x succeed

wings 

90% 2x fail /  3x suceed

 

Literally impossible to make item +15, almost impossible to make it over +13, fails fails and fails, with those percentages, the chance of getting an item to +15 should be 

0.95 * 0.95 * 0.90 * 0.90 * 0.85 * 0.85 = 0.52%, so what are tha odds of getting 0 items to +15 out of 10 items?

P(10) = 0.48 * 0.48 * 0.48 * 0.48 * 0.48 * 0.48 * 0.48 * 0.48 * 0.48 * 0.48 = 0.00065  wich is extremely lower

The % doesnt seem correct, please i suggest to review it, if it is correct please try to simulate the same scenario because i refuse to think that 2 or 3 people are that extremely unlucky

EDIT:

1 more ancient item failed with talisman of luck at 85% first attemp

Edited by kztyler

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